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DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/21 11:19

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Mixed trade at midday, with soybeans at the lows of the day. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is softer with the Dow down 75. The dollar index is 2 
higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude .90 
higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold 
down 7.10.


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade looking to sustain 
light buying to the close after seeing support evaporate earlier in the week. 
Ethanol margins remain stable to better with the rebound in unleaded, and 
tighter stocks on hand. Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so 
far with slow action continuing. South America should see areas of improvement 
as planting progresses, especially in Brazil with no major issues on the 
horizon for now. Weekly export sales showed some improvement to 788,000 metric 
tons, with another 106,000 metric tons on the daily wire. On the December 
contract support is the $3.65 3/4 lows from Wednesday along with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $3.63, with resistance the 20-day at $3.78, along with 
heavily oversold conditions. 


   Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower with early short covering giving way to 
light selling again with little fresh news to encourage buying beyond profit 
taking. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. The 
ral remains at the lows with planting hitting the homestretch in Brazil. Bean 
basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness 
showing up at crushers. The weekly export sales were good at 1.52 million 
metric tons, with 196,400 of meal, and 39,100 of oil. On the January chart 
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $9.01, which we are just above with 
resistance well above the market at $9.37 where the 20-day moving average, 
along with oversold conditions.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower at midday with Kansas City holding up the 
best as Chicago reverses lower. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 87 
cents with choppy action to start the week, Chicago also holding a 14 cent 
premium to Minneapolis. The corn/hrw spread has widened back to 59 cents, 
pushing wheat further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help more if 
sustained vs. world values this week. Export business will be watched with more 
Mediterranean tenders going out this week with weekly sales in line with recent 
weeks at 437,700 metric tons of wheat. The extended forecast hints at some 
relief for the drier western areas with late planted wheat struggling. The 
December Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.13, with 
resistance the 20-day at 4.23 which we need a second close above and then the 
recent highs at $4.38.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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