DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/21 11:19
Grains Mixed at Midday
Mixed trade at midday, with soybeans at the lows of the day.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is softer with the Dow down 75. The dollar index is 2
higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude .90
higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade looking to sustain
light buying to the close after seeing support evaporate earlier in the week.
Ethanol margins remain stable to better with the rebound in unleaded, and
tighter stocks on hand. Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so
far with slow action continuing. South America should see areas of improvement
as planting progresses, especially in Brazil with no major issues on the
horizon for now. Weekly export sales showed some improvement to 788,000 metric
tons, with another 106,000 metric tons on the daily wire. On the December
contract support is the $3.65 3/4 lows from Wednesday along with the lower
Bollinger Band at $3.63, with resistance the 20-day at $3.78, along with
heavily oversold conditions.
Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower with early short covering giving way to
light selling again with little fresh news to encourage buying beyond profit
taking. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. The
ral remains at the lows with planting hitting the homestretch in Brazil. Bean
basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness
showing up at crushers. The weekly export sales were good at 1.52 million
metric tons, with 196,400 of meal, and 39,100 of oil. On the January chart
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $9.01, which we are just above with
resistance well above the market at $9.37 where the 20-day moving average,
along with oversold conditions.
Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower at midday with Kansas City holding up the
best as Chicago reverses lower. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 87
cents with choppy action to start the week, Chicago also holding a 14 cent
premium to Minneapolis. The corn/hrw spread has widened back to 59 cents,
pushing wheat further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help more if
sustained vs. world values this week. Export business will be watched with more
Mediterranean tenders going out this week with weekly sales in line with recent
weeks at 437,700 metric tons of wheat. The extended forecast hints at some
relief for the drier western areas with late planted wheat struggling. The
December Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.13, with
resistance the 20-day at 4.23 which we need a second close above and then the
recent highs at $4.38.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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