DTN Midday Livestock Comments          01/12 11:38

   Cattle Cautiously Scale Higher While Hogs Dip Lower 

   All in all, the livestock complex desires to trade higher, but doesn't want 
to do so recklessly without seeing more fundamental support. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour as the cattle 
contracts are higher but the lean hog contracts are a tick lower. New showlists 
appear to be lower in all major feeding areas. March corn is up 2 3/4 cents per 
bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 
is down 57.04 points and NASDAQ is up 55.58 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The live cattle complex is higher moving into Monday's noon hour as traders 
are pleased to see that after Friday's close, the fed cash cattle market did 
see higher prices in the South. It seems as though traders have been reluctant 
to overly advance the contracts without seeing more robust fundamental support. 
February live cattle are up $1.47 at $235.20, April live cattle are up $1.20 at 
$235.87 and June live cattle are up $0.72 at $230.47. New showlists appear to 
be lower in all major feeding areas.

   Monday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the cattle and beef 
markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as 
carcass weights continue to grow bigger. Quarterly steer prices are mostly 
increased from last month's estimate as steers in the first quarter are 
expected to average $232 (up $2.00 from December); steers in the second quarter 
are expected to average $234 (unchanged from December); steers in the third 
quarter are expected to average $237 (up $1.00 from December); and steers in 
the fourth quarter are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were 
increased by 75 million pounds as shipments from Oceania and South America are 
expected to continue. Beef exports for 2026 were decreased by 60 million pounds 
as the price of beef remains a limiting export factor.

   Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $365, which is $5.00 
higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle 
traded at mostly $232, which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted 
average.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.64 ($357.27) and select up $3.17 
($355.34) with a movement of 22 loads (14.54 loads of choice, 3.46 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 3.95 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Monday's noon hour 
despite the fact that some of the furthest deferred months are trading slightly 
lower. January feeders are up $0.55 at $361.27, March feeders are up $0.37 at 
$355.00 and April feeders are up $0.17 at $353.22. Much like the live cattle 
complex, the feeder cattle complex again seems willing to advance the contracts 
-- but is hungry to see more fundamental support as the market is facing some 
new resistance. Thankfully feeder cattle demand was strong last week and 
hopefully buyers will meet sales with the same level of enthusiasm as they did 
last week.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex continues to trade lower as the market simply hasn't 
seen enough fundamental support for traders to feel comfortable pushing the 
market back up to its resistance threshold. February lean hogs are down $0.80 
at $84.50, April lean hogs are down $1.07 at $90.70 and June lean hogs are down 
$0.80 at $103.92. Last week packers weren't very aggressive in the cash market, 
so one would assume they'll need to be more active this week. But so far they 
aren't showing much interest.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 1/9/2025 is unavailable from the source.

   Pork cutouts total 156.54 loads with 141.85 loads of pork cuts and 14.69 
loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.91, $94.23. Hog prices are unavailable 
again on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report because of confidentiality. The 
only thing we can see is that 185 head have traded this morning and the 
market's five-day rolling average now sits at $68.56.

   Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork industry of 
2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 740 million pounds as the 
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report in December shared there are more hogs in the 
countryside than originally assumed. The quarterly price projections didn't 
change from December as hogs in the first quarter are anticipated to average 
$64; hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $70; hogs in the third 
quarter are expected to average $72; and hogs in the fourth quarter are 
expected to average $61. Pork imports for 2026 increased by 15 million pounds 
and pork exports for 2026 increased by 60 million pounds.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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