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October 29, 2020
Portland Price Trends
10-01-19 01-01-20 09-01-20 10-22-20 10-29-20
#1 SWW (bu) 5.90 6.15 5.35 6.20 6.05
White Club 5.90 7.65 5.70 6.55 6.40
DNS 14% 6.58 7.21 6.51 6.97 6.72
HRW 11.5% 5.61 6.26 6.20 6.99 6.77
#2 Corn (ton) 173.00 172.00 163.00 170.00 172.00
#2 Barley 150.00 140.00 130.00 130.00 130.00
Wheat...Relative values for U.S. wheat continue to attract interest
in both white wheat and hard red spring, as both those markets reflect a
burdensome supply in weaker basis levels. White wheat posted a stellar
week of export demand last week and with the retreat in Chicago futures,
basis levels have now climbed above even money after holding a nearly
30 cent discount the past few weeks.
Weekly Sales...USDA reported a surge in U.S. wheat export demand over
the past week, as total sales posted the second best week of the year at
27.3 mb. Year-to-date commitments of 594 mb place total wheat sales 11%
ahead of a year ago and 12% above the five-year average pace. Top seller
was white wheat, registering a whopping 16.5 mb for the week on interest
primarily from South Korea and China. Soft white is now showing 165 mb
in sales, setting 38% ahead of a year ago and 30% above average. Sales
for hard red spring came in at 5.5 mb to put year-to-date bookings just
below 170 mb; 14% better than a year ago and 5% above average. Hard red
winter registered 4.8 mb and with 168 mb in commitments, sets 10% ahead
of a year ago and 17% above average.
Top Buyers...South Korea was by far the big U.S. wheat buyer with a
total of 7.2 mb of white wheat, followed by Mexico with 4 mb, Japan at
2.3 mb and both China and the Philippines with 2.2 mb each.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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